Rumor: Meltzer Sees Wrestle Kingdom 21 Wins Split 3 to 3
Summary: Unconfirmed: Wrestling Inc reported on Nov. 8 that Dave Meltzer wrote in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter that NJPW and AEW should each take three wins at Wrestle Kingdom 21. It is his reading of the card, not a reported plan.
Single source, not confirmed. Heat 2/5 · Chatter
This is a rumor and it is not confirmed. Wrestling Inc reported on Nov. 8 that Dave Meltzer, in the latest Wrestling Observer Newsletter, believes NJPW and AEW should each take three wins at Wrestle Kingdom 21 on Jan. 4 at the Tokyo Dome. It is Meltzer's reading of the card. It is not a reported booking plan, and neither company has said anything.
The quick version
- Not confirmed by NJPW, AEW or any wrestler. No results have been announced.
- Reliability: Single source, not confirmed. We read it through Wrestling Inc, not the paywalled newsletter.
- Heat 2 of 5. It is analysis of how the card could go, and a weak guide to what will happen.
What Meltzer reportedly said
Wrestling Inc says Meltzer believes the partnership stays strong if each side gets three wins. For NJPW, it says he can see Mistico and his partner, still to be named, not winning the junior tag title three-way "quite easily," and Yuya Uemura beating Gabe Kidd for the IWGP Global Heavyweight Championship. For AEW, he sees MJF beating Ryohei Oiwa. He says Will Ospreay would have to beat Callum Newman if he is still AEW World Champion by then, because a loss would complicate things in the U.S., per Wrestling Inc.
Wrestling Inc says he sees Jon Moxley against Shingo Takagi going either way. It says Meltzer notes Takagi has lost to men lower on the card, and that Moxley will put someone over if the business is right. That result, he suggests, could shape the main event.
The main event
Wrestling Inc says Meltzer can see Yota Tsuji keeping the IWGP Heavyweight Championship over Kenny Omega, because the show will be on network TV in Japan and a win would cement Tsuji as the top home-grown star. He also sees merit in an Omega win, for the extra business early in 2027 and a bigger rematch later. It says he compares that to Hiroshi Tanahashi's loss to Keiji Mutoh 18 years ago. For the card as announced, see our Wrestle Kingdom 21 card story.
Crowd and extra names
Per Wrestling Inc, NJPW is not trying to match the ticket sales for the Tanahashi retirement show in January 2026, which it says drew the biggest Tokyo Dome crowd for NJPW since 1998. It says the goal is to top 25,000, after Wrestle Kingdom 19 drew just over 24,000. Meltzer thinks AEW's names can get there. Adam Copeland and Mercedes Moné have both said they want to work the Dome. Meltzer believes that if either were on the show, they would have been named at Power Struggle on Nov. 3, Wrestling Inc says.
Reported by: Dave Meltzer in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (Nov. 2026), as summarized by Wrestling Inc on Nov. 8, 2026. Reliability: Single source, not confirmed. We did not read the newsletter. Wrestling Inc's line on the Mistico match is ambiguous, so we quote it. We did not contact NJPW or AEW.
Sources
- Wrestling Inc (Sam Palmer), "Dave Meltzer Breaks Down Backstage Politics Of AEW Presence At NJPW Wrestle Kingdom", Nov. 8, 2026 (all of Meltzer's views, the card, the attendance figures). https://www.wrestlinginc.com/2310318/aew-njpw-wrestle-kingdom-21-dave-meltzer-breaks-down-backstage-politics-presence/
- Wrestling Observer Newsletter (Dave Meltzer), Nov. 2026. Paywalled. No link: we did not read it.
- WrestlingNews.com, "7 Matches Set for Wrestle Kingdom 21, Led by Tsuji vs. Omega", Nov. 5, 2026. https://wrestlingnews.com/story/seven-matches-set-wrestle-kingdom-21/
- WrestlingNews.com staff reporting: read Wrestling Inc's article in full and compared its card with ours. We did not contact NJPW or AEW.
How we credit sources: Editorial standards.